Optimization of the irrigation water resources for agricultural sustainability in Tarim River Basin, China

An integrated optimization method is developed for supporting agriculture water management and planning in Tarim River Basin, Northwest China. The developed method couples two-stage stochastic programming (TSP) with inexact quadratic program (IQP). The hydrological model is provided for forecasting the available irrigation water. The simulation system is then embedded into an optimization framework, where the objective is to maximize the system benefit for water resources management. The developed method can not only deal with nonlinearities in the cost/benefit objective and uncertainties expressed as probabilities and intervals, but also support the analysis of policy scenarios that are associated with economic penalties when the promised water-allocation targets are violated. A case study is conducted for Kaidu-kongque watershed in Tarim River Basin. The results obtained can help generate desired policies for water resources management with maximized economic benefit and minimized system-failure risk.

► An integrated optimization model is developed for supporting water management. ► Uncertainties and nonlinearities existing in system components are reflected. ► Agricultural water policies associated with economic penalties are analyzed. ► Results can help identify an optimal strategy for agricultural sustainability.