Economically optimal crop sequences using risk-adjusted network flows: Modeling cotton crop rotations in the southeastern United States

Crop rotation is a long-standing agricultural practice whose agronomic and economic benefits are well documented. The crop rotation decision at the farm level is very complex with a myriad of factors which can ultimately impact observed net returns from the decision choice. Network models have been proposed as one method of modeling this decision problem in a logically consistent framework. The aspect of this problem considered in this article is how to incorporate not only expected net returns from alternative rotation sequence choices, but also the relative impacts of net income risk on the decision process. A transshipment network formulation of the crop rotation decision problem is presented with the incorporation of risk constraints, providing the ability to derive sets of optimal solutions, allowing the decision maker to select optimal crop rotation sequence sets based upon net income risk preferences.

► The impact of net income risk on crop rotation sequence selection is examined. ► A transshipment network flow model is developed with side and risk constraints. ► Model results yield optimal solution sets, with different income and risk levels. ► This modeling framework facilitates decision choices based on risk preferences.