Strategic agricultural land-use planning in response to water-supplier variation in a China’s rural region

A strategic agricultural land-use planning approach was proposed in response to water-supplier variation under parameter uncertainty. It was capable of examining the implication of various water-suppliers on agricultural land-use planning problems, interpreting the response of land-use schemes to water-supply patterns with respect to a variety of systematic features, and handling uncertain parameters widely existing in many real-world practices. A case study in central-south China demonstrated the applicability of the proposed approach. The modeling inputs of economic-related parameters were identified as intervals based on statistic data, while those related to water availability were predicted through a distributed hydrological model. Scenarios of (1) no groundwater supplementation, (2) 20% of groundwater supplementation, and (3) 40% of groundwater supplementation to total water demand were considered to generate optimal land-use plans. Reasonable results were obtained, which were then used to interpret the implication of water-supplier variation on planning sustainable development strategies. A special rate of groundwater supplementation (i.e. 20.1%) was also suggested to the manager to facilitate regulating long-term water-allocation schemes.

► We proposed strategic agricultural land-use planning for a China’s rural region. ► It can reflect the response of land-use plans to water-supplier variation. ► Parameter uncertainty associated with the modeling inputs can be addressed. ► We found that utilization of multi-water-supplier will benefit local economy. ► 20.1% of agricultural water demand should be satisfied by groundwater.