Modelling the effects of alternative CAP policies for the Spanish high-nature value cereal-steppe farming systems

The latest reform of the European Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) raised concerns regarding the future of low-productivity farming systems, which are often those most worthy of environmental conservation. In Spain, the conservation of the cereal-steppe avifauna, a community of European importance, relies on the continuity of low-intensity cereal systems and traditional cultivation patterns. In this interdisciplinary study we compare the effects of alternative support mechanisms on the economic output of representative farm types in one of the most remarkable cereal-steppe systems in Spain. Our results show a significant reduction of gross profit margins under the new CAP mechanisms in comparison to the previous support system and a derived risk of activity cessation. Consequent foreseeable changes in the activity patterns, such as farming abandonment or concentration of land by remaining farmers and intensification, would imply a deterioration of the current habitat structure for birds. We then consider the economic effects of implementing an agri-environmental scheme specifically designed for conserving the local cereal-steppe avifauna. Our results show that the application of this scheme could significantly contribute to prevent activity cessation and hence related undesired changes, enhancing at the same time the quality for birds of the farmed habitat in the area.