A logistic analysis of the factors determining the decision of smallholder farmers to intercrop: A case study involving rubber–tea intercropping in Sri Lanka

The factors influencing the decision of smallholder farmers to adopt new farming technologies were studied with reference to rubber–tea intercropping in Sri Lanka. Rubber–tea intercropping has been recommended previously to rubber farmers as a means to improve productivity and income during the early pre-tapping phase of rubber growth. Although crop trials have shown that the two crops are agronomically compatible and potentially produce a combined economic yield superior to the yield of a sole crop grown on the same area of land, there is little evidence of widespread adoption of this practice among smallholder farmers in Sri Lanka. The aim of the study was to determine the major factors that influence the decision to undertake rubber–tea intercropping and to construct a predictive model that describes the likelihood of adoption of intercropping by traditional smallholder rubber growers. A rapid rural appraisal (RRA) was undertaken based on semi-structured interviews of 90 smallholder farmers in the main rubber growing low wet zone of Sri Lanka. Among a number of factors shown to significantly influence the decision to intercrop tea with rubber, three were shown to operate independently, namely level of income, source of income (i.e. solely from own farm or from farm plus additional off-farm enterprises), and availability of land considered suitable for tea cultivation. A statistical model developed through correlation and logistic analysis, which predicts the likelihood of a smallholder adopting intercropping based on these factors, is presented and discussed. The most likely combination of circumstances (82% probability) under which rubber–tea intercropping is practiced is shown to be where the farmer’s income is greater than Rs. 10,000 per month, where the farmer’s income is based solely on own farm enterprises, and where more than 80% of the farmer’s land area was judged to be suitable for tea cultivation. Conversely, 30% of smallholder farmers that chose not to intercrop did possess land suitable for tea cultivation. Qualitative responses to the RRA indicated that limitation of technical knowledge was the main problem subsequently faced by rubber farmers who had adopted rubber–tea intercropping. Results indicate that there is need for both income support through farm subsidies and further agricultural extension services, if rubber–tea intercropping is to be adopted more widely in Sri Lanka. The wider usefulness of the developed logistic model in determining the likelihood of adoption of intercropping by smallholder farmers is discussed.