Early warning and flood forecasting for large rivers with the lower Mekong as example

An early warning system is a set of procedures designed to protect human lives and minimize damages to be expected from a flood which exceeds a certain critical level. It consists of a number of related and connected parts: forecasting, transformation of the forecast into a warning, transmission of the warning to local decision makers, conversion of the warning into remedial action (UN/ISDR, 2004). Each of these components must work efficiently for a successful early warning system. In developing countries such a system is of particular importance for saving human lives. The components of an early warning system will be described first, and details will be given for designing a data based flood forecasting model, using the lower Mekong as example. The example draws on the Flood Mitigation and Management Strategy of the Mekong River Commission (MRC) for the lower Mekong countries.