Estimating the transmission potential of supercritical processes based on the final size distribution of minor outbreaks

► Even for supercritical process, the available data may be limited to minor outbreaks. ► Final size distribution of minor outbreaks is derived assuming R0>1. ► The proposed method was used to estimate R0 of pneumonic plague. ► Given only minor outbreak data, estimation of R0 is not sufficiently achieved by directly counting the number of offspring. ► Minor outbreak data need to be assessed by both subcritical and supercritical assumptions.