Cybernetic modeling of adaptive prediction of environmental changes by microorganisms

•Cybernetic model is developed to model asymmetric anticipatory regulation strategy.•The model successfully accounts for various experimental observations.•Timing the response in anticipatory regulation can improve microorganism fitness.

Microorganisms exhibit varied regulatory strategies such as direct regulation, symmetric anticipatory regulation, asymmetric anticipatory regulation, etc. Current mathematical modeling frameworks for the growth of microorganisms either do not incorporate regulation or assume that the microorganisms utilize the direct regulation strategy. In the present study, we extend the cybernetic modeling framework to account for asymmetric anticipatory regulation strategy. The extended model accurately captures various experimental observations. We use the developed model to explore the fitness advantage provided by the asymmetric anticipatory regulation strategy and observe that the optimal extent of asymmetric regulation depends on the selective pressure that the microorganisms experience. We also explore the importance of timing the response in anticipatory regulation and find that there is an optimal time, dependent on the extent of asymmetric regulation, at which microorganisms should respond anticipatorily to maximize their fitness. We then discuss the advantages offered by the cybernetic modeling framework over other modeling frameworks in modeling the asymmetric anticipatory regulation strategy.