| Article ID | Journal | Published Year | Pages | File Type |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4500299 | Mathematical Biosciences | 2012 | 5 Pages |
We consider the spread of an epidemic through a population divided into n sub-populations, in which individuals move between populations according to a Markov transition matrix Σ and infectives can only make infectious contacts with members of their current population. Expressions for the basic reproduction number, R0, and the probability of extinction of the epidemic are derived. It is shown that in contrast to contact distribution models, the distribution of the infectious period effects both the basic reproduction number and the probability of extinction of the epidemic in the limit as the total population size N → ∞. The interactions between the infectious period distribution and the transition matrix Σ mean that it is not possible to draw general conclusions about the effects on R0 and the probability of extinction. However, it is shown that for n = 2, the basic reproduction number, R0, is maximised by a constant length infectious period and is decreasing in ς, the speed of movement between the two populations.
► General formulae for the basic reproduction number R0 and the probability of extinction. ► Clear statements about the affect of the infectious period distribution, TI, and speed of movement, ς, between populations upon R0 for n = 2 populations. ► Comparison of extinction probability for different TI, differences with contact model.
