The probability of extinction in a bovine respiratory syncytial virus epidemic model

►We examine the connection between backward bifurcation in a deterministic epidemic model and the probability of extinction in the corresponding stochastic model. ►We consider a two-stage model for bovine respiratory syncytial virus as an illustration. ►Numerical results indicate close agreement between theoretical and simulated probabilities of extinction for models with forward bifurcation, but this was not necessarily the case when backward bifurcation was included.