Field experiments and simulation to evaluate rice cultivar adaptation to elevated carbon dioxide and temperature in sub-tropical India

•Rice cultivars differ (−17% to +7%) in yield response to elevated CO2 (+100 ppm) and temperature (+1 °C).•CERES-Rice must be re-parameterized to accurately simulate crop yield under climate change scenarios.•Overall yield of current modern cultivars will decline under future climates.•Yield was maintained in the cultivar ‘Badshabhog’ with long duration, long leaves, and short grains.

Location specific adaptation option is required to minimize adverse impact of climate change on rice production. In the present investigation, we calibrated genotype coefficients of four cultivars in the CERES-Rice model for simulation of rice yield under elevated CO2 environment and evaluation of the cultivar adaptation in subtropical India. The four cultivars (IR 36, Swarna, Swarn sub1, and Badshabhog) were grown in open field and in Open Top Chamber (OTC) of ambient CO2 (≈390 ppm) and elevated CO2 environment (25% higher than the ambient) during wet season (June–November) of the years 2011 and 2012 at Kharagpur, India. The genotype coefficients; P1 (basic vegetative phase), P2R (photoperiod sensitivity) and P5 (grain filling phase) were higher, but G1 (potential spikelet number) was lower under the elevated CO2 environment as compared to their open field value in all the four cultivars. Use of the calibrated model of elevated CO2 environment simulated the changes in grain yield of −13%, −17%, −4%, and +7% for the cultivars IR 36, Swarna, Swarna sub1, and Badshabhog, respectively, with increasing CO2 level of 100 ppm and rising temperature of 1 °C as compared to the ambient CO2 level and temperature and they were comparable with observed yield changes from the OTC experiment. Potential impacts of climate change were simulated for climate change scenarios developed from HadCM3 global climate model under the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Special Report on Emission Scenarios (A2 and B2) for the years 2020, 2050, and 2080. Use of the future climate data simulated a continuous decline in rice grain yield from present years to the years 2020, 2050 and 2080 for the cultivars IR 36 and Swarna in A2 as well as B2 scenario with rising temperature of ≥0.8 °C. Whereas, the cultivar Swarna sub1 was least affected and Badshabhog was favoured under elevated CO2 with rising temperature up to 2 °C in the sub-tropical climate of India.