Why are wheat yields stagnating in Europe? A comprehensive data analysis for France

The last two decades are witnessing a decline in the growth trend of cereal yields in many European countries. The present study analyses yield trends in France using various sources of data: national and regional statistics, scattered trials, results of agroclimatic models using climatic data. Effects in genetic changes through breeding, agronomy and climate are investigated as possible causes. Our results show that genetic progress has not declined but it was partly counteracted, from 1990 on, by climate change which in general is unfavorable to cereal yields in temperate climates because of heat stress during grain filling and drought during stem elongation. We cannot however, from the decade beginning in 2000, rule out agronomic causes, related to policy and economy, in particular the decline of legumes in the cereal rotations, replaced by oilseed rape and to a lesser extent the decrease in nitrogen fertilization.