Simulating multiple pest damage in varying winter wheat production situations

The production situation–injury profile paradigm can be used as a framework to assess the harmfulness of multiple-pest complexes in a changing agriculture. A mechanistic simulation model for wheat, WHEATPEST, was developed to incorporate drivers of (i) variable production situations and (ii) their related injury profiles. The model simulates the harmful effects of pathogens, pests, and weeds in a simple, open, generic manner. Simulation drivers were derived from published reports, in particular through a meta-analysis of highly detailed farmers’ field surveys in the United Kingdom and the Netherlands. Preliminary analysis of the model's performances indicates that WHEATPEST conforms with available published reports in a range of production situations and injury profiles. While improvement on some components of the model are discussed, this work points at the need for the collection of cross-disciplinary, reasonably accurate, and standardised data at a system's level, and at the usefulness of modelling tools for basic research and policy.