Towards flexible management of postharvest variation in fruit firmness of three apple cultivars

•Postharvest variability in flesh firmness of three apples cultivars was modeled.•Fruit-to-fruit variability in flesh firmness increased during storage and shelf-life.•Rapid softening apple cultivars showed very large postharvest variability in firmness.•Parameters for softening depended on picking date.

Stochastic modeling provides a useful tool in managing biological variation in the postharvest chain. In the current study, the fruit-to-fruit variability in the postharvest firmness of apples was modeled. Apples from three cultivars (‘Jonagold’, ‘Braeburn’, and ‘Kanzi’) were harvested at different levels of maturity, and stored at different temperatures and controlled atmosphere (CA) conditions. By using a kinetic model describing firmness breakdown as a function of time, temperature, controlled atmosphere conditions and endogenous ethylene concentration, the main stochastic variables were identified as the initial firmness and the rate constants for firmness breakdown and ethylene production. Treating these variables as random model parameters, the Monte Carlo method was used to simulate the propagation of the fruit-to-fruit variability in flesh firmness within a batch of apples during storage under different CA conditions and subsequent shelf-life exposure. The model was validated using independent data sets from apples picked in a different season. The model developed in this study can be used to predict the probability of having apples of certain firmness after long term storage for different scenarios of temperatures and CA conditions.