Modeling spring emergence of Osmia cornifrons Radoszkowski (Hymenoptera: Megachilidae) females in Korea

•The effect of temperature on emergence rates of O. cornifrons female was described with linear and nonlinear functions.•The cumulative proportion of O. cornifrons female against normalized time was presented well with the Weibull function.•Osmia cornifrons females could complete their emergence in 10–35 °C, but not in 40 °C.•Model of spring emergence of O. cornifrons female properly predicted the field population behavior in Korean environmental condition.

The Japanese hornfaced bee, Osmia cornifrons Radoszkowski (Hymenoptera: Megachilidae), is an important pollinator of apple. It overwinters as diapausing adult in cocoon and the synchronization of the adult emergence in spring with apple blossom is critical for successful pollination, specifically in the environment with variable climate. To this end, prediction model of adult emergence would help manage O. cornifrons populations for planed pollination. In this study, by using temperature-dependent emergence data of O. cornifrons, emergence rate were mathematically described using linear and Lactin's nonlinear regression methods. The lower emergence thresholds estimated from linear regression for female was 7.98 °C and the thermal constant (DD, degree days) was 112.43DD. Pattern of emergence completion was described by using Weibull function and prediction of spring emergence was modeled based on functions of emergence rate and distribution. The model predicted the emergence of O. cornifrons between 100–130 Julian date and the observation fell between 108–129 Julian date. The prediction ranges of O. cornifrons emergence were wider than that of observation. This model could help predict spring emergence of O. cornifrons in the field and optimize planed pollination program for pollination service in agricultural systems in the climate change era.

Graphical abstractFigure optionsDownload full-size imageDownload as PowerPoint slide