An ecological method for qualitative risk assessment and its use in the management of fisheries in New South Wales, Australia

Risk assessment has become a key part of management plans for wild capture fisheries. However, for data-deficient fisheries and those with limited knowledge of ecological interactions a qualitative risk assessment method is needed. This paper presents such a method. Using a risk analysis framework adapted from the Standards Australia/Standards New Zealand 4360 we used a multi-stage risk assessment process that consisted of risk context (defining the undesirable event to avoid for any component of the ecosystem), risk identification (sources of risk from the activities of a fishery) and risk characterisation (levels of risk for each species or component of the ecosystem). A qualitative risk matrix was developed to determine the risk from fishing for each component of the ecosystem. The matrix combined two independent factors (fishery impact profile and resilience) that described the factors that determined the likelihood (i.e. the risk) of an undesirable event. Specific issues arising from the risk assessment are then identified. These issues are used in the fishery management plan to generate specific responses that will lower risk levels. The strengths of this qualitative method include its adaptability to a range of different ecosystem components within a fishery (e.g. habitats and threatened species as well as target species) and its applicability to a wide range of different fisheries. The steps involved and the decision criteria used to determine risk levels are transparent and logical, thus are open to scrutiny by stakeholders.This paper seeks to demonstrate that a logical and systematic method for qualitative risk assessment provides effective estimates of risk for input into the management plans of any fishery lacking information about one or more of its ecological components. This qualitative risk assessment method provides an important tool to fishery managers and scientists in developing robust management plans where there are minimal data about and knowledge of the fishery. The method is adaptable, repeatable and robust. Differences between our method and that of [Fletcher, W.J., Chesson, J., Fisher, M., Sainsbury, K.J., Hundloe, T., Smith, A.D.M., Whitworth, B., 2002. National ESD reporting framework for Australian Fisheries: the ‘How to’ guide for wild capture fisheries. Fisheries Research and Development Corporation Final Report, Project No. 2000/145, Canberra, Australia, ASBN 1877098019; Fletcher, W.J., Chesson, J., Fisher, M., Sainsbury, K.J., Hundloe, T.J., Fisher, M., 2005. A flexible and practical framework for reporting on ecologically sustainable development for wild capture fisheries. Fish. Res. 71, 175–183] are discussed.