Using a Tree Ring δ13C Annual Series to Reconstruct Atmospheric CO2 Concentration over the Past 300 Years1

ABSTRACTThe annual series of δ13C were measured in tree rings of three Cryptomeria fortunei disks (CF-1, CF-2, and CF-3) collected from West Tianmu Mountain, Zhejiang Province, China, according to cross-dating tree ring ages. There was no obvious decreasing trend of the δ13C annual time series of CF-2 before 1835. However, from 1835 to 1982 the three tree ring δ13C annual series exhibited similar decreasing trends that were significantly (P ≤ 0.001) correlated. The distribution characteristics of a scatter diagram between estimated δ13C series of CF-2 from modeling and the atmospheric CO2 concentration extracted from the Law Dome ice core from 1840 to 1978 were analyzed and a curvilinear regression equation for reconstructing atmospheric CO2 concentration was established with R2 = 0.98. Also, a test of independent samples indicated that between 1685 and 1839 the reconstructed atmospheric CO2 concentration using the δ13C series of CF-2 had a close relationship with the Law Dome and Siple ice cores, with a standard deviation of 1.98. The general increasing trend of the reconstructed atmospheric CO2 concentration closely reflected the long-term variation of atmospheric CO2 concentration recorded both before and after the Industrial Revolution. Between 1685 and 1840 the evaluated atmospheric CO2 concentration was stable, but after 1840 it exhibited a rapid increase. Given a longer δ13C annual time series of tree rings, it was feasible to rebuild a representative time series to describe the atmospheric CO2 concentration for an earlier period and for years that were not in the ice core record.