Exact and approximation methods for dependability assessment of tram systems with time window

•Analyzed reliability of a tram system with redundancy and time resource.•Examined hazard probability and mean hazard time of the system.•Found accurate solution when one of variables conforms to the Weibull distribution.•Close approximations for cases when two variables have Weibull distributions.•Good progress in estimations of Weibull-only systems proved.

The transportation system examined in this paper is the city tram one, where failed trams are replaced by reliable spare ones. If failed tram is repaired and delivered, then it comes back on work. There is the time window that failed tram has to be either replaced (exchanged) by spare or by repaired and delivered within. Time window is therefore paramount to user perception of transport system unreliability. Time between two subsequent failures, exchange time, and repair together with delivery time, respectively, are described by random variables A, E, and D. A/E/D is selected as the notation for these random variables. There is a finite number of spare trams. Delivery time does not depend on the number of repair facilities. Hence, repair and delivery process can be treated as one with infinite number of facilities. Undesirable event called hazard is the event: neither the replacement nor the delivery has been completed in the time window. The goal of the paper is to find the following relationships: hazard probability of the tram system and mean hazard time as functions of number of spare trams. For systems with exponential time between failures, Weibull exchange and exponential delivery (so M/W/M in the proposed notation) two accurate solutions have been found. For systems with Weibull time between failures with shape in the range from 0.9 to 1.1, Weibull exchange and exponential delivery (i.e. W/W/M) a method yielding small errors has been provided. For the most general and difficult case in which all the random variables conform to Weibull distribution (W/W/W) a method returning moderate errors has been given.