Stochastic preference analysis in numerical preference relations

•We present SPA as a new prioritization method for decision making.•SPA can deal with NPRs which are characterized by probability distributions.•SPA is carried out by Monte Carlo simulation that can produce reliable results.

Numerical preference relations (NPRs) consisting of numerical judgments can be considered as a general form of the existing preference relations, such as multiplicative preference relations (MPRs), fuzzy preference relations (FPRs), interval MPRs (IV-MPRs) and interval FPRs (IV-FPRs). On the basis of NPRs, we develop a stochastic preference analysis (SPA) method to aid the decision makers (DMs) in decision making. The numerical judgments in NPRs can also be characterized by different probability distributions in accordance with practice. By exploring the judgment space of NPRs, SPA produces several outcomes including the rank acceptability index, the expected priority vector, the expected rank and the confidence factor. The outcomes are obtained by Monte Carlo simulation with at least 95% confidence degree. Based on the outcomes, the DMs can choose some of them which they find most useful to make reliable decisions.