A modified Duckworth–Lewis method for adjusting targets in interrupted limited overs cricket

In this paper we present a modified Duckworth/Lewis method. The key modification is an improved functional form for the model describing the runs to be scored in an innings. In the course of our work we compare several alternative methods for resetting targets in limited overs cricket that have been proposed in the literature and conclude that the Duckworth/Lewis method is the most viable. Our analysis also suggests that it is reasonable to use a single method for both the 50-over and 20-over formats of the game.

► The Duckworth/Lewis (D/L) method is used to reset targets in interrupted limited overs cricket matches. ► We describe a method for estimating the D/L model (no previous paper has revealed how this can be done). ► We give evidence suggesting that the runs scoring patterns in T20 and ODI are not statistically significantly different. ► We present a modified D/L method that is based on an alternative model for the runs remaining to be scored in an innings. ► Our method provides a superior fit to data and has more intuitive properties than its predecessor.