The macroeconomic cost of catastrophic pollinator declines

We develop a computable general equilibrium (CGE) approach to assess the macroeconomic impacts of productivity shocks due to catastrophic losses of pollination ecosystem services at global and regional scales. In most regions, producers of pollinator dependent crops end up benefiting because direct output losses are outweighed by increased prices, while non-agricultural sectors experience large adverse indirect impacts, resulting in overall losses whose magnitudes vary substantially. By comparison, partial equilibrium analyses tend to overstate the costs to agricultural producers, understate aggregate economy-wide losses, and overstate the impacts on consumers' welfare. Our results suggest an upper bound on global willingness to pay for agricultural pollination services of $127-$152 billion.