Ukraine and the great biofuel potential? A political material flow analysis

•We present material flow accounting (MFA) data for Ukraine, focusing on agriculture.•In an interdisciplinary analysis, we combine the MFA approach with research on socio-political developments.•We discuss the impact of European demand for biofuel feedstock on Ukrainian policy-making and biophysical development.

Ukraine was once considered the breadbasket of the Soviet Union, its agriculture subject to both extensification and intensification measures. Following the dissolution of the Soviet Union, both these processes were reversed, giving modern-day Ukraine the image of untapped agricultural potential. Alongside the country's proximity to the European Union and its access to the Black Sea, this has made Ukraine a key candidate as a global supplier of feedstock for biofuel. Demand for the latter is rising noticeably, especially in the wake of current European and international blending targets for liquid biofuels. Ukraine has responded with a number of initiatives to further biofuel feedstock production. We have compiled a material flow account for Ukraine, focusing especially on the development of the agricultural sector since the early 1990s. By complementing this physical account with an in-depth analysis of political and economic developments, we are able to trace the impact of rising demand for biofuel feedstock on Ukraine. We find that the attempt to establish a biofuel sector based largely on rapeseed was not successful but has nonetheless left the country at a cross-road in the development of both its economy and its resource use.