Phasing out of environmentally harmful subsidies: Consequences of the 2003 CAP reform

Subsidies linked to production have been classified as environmentally harmful by the OECD. A core element of the EU 2003 Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) reform is to decouple income support from production. This paper estimates the environmental consequences of this policy reform. An agricultural sector model using a modified version of the positive mathematical programming method depicts the complex natural, structural, and political relationships of Austrian farming. Changes in management measures can be analyzed with respect to their environmental effects by using appropriate indicators. Simulation results show that the 2003 CAP reform will reduce the average cost of production, and may improve environmental conditions regarding soil, water, and greenhouse gases when compared to a scenario without reform. Thus, the new CAP is likely to bring about outcomes which the previous reform (Agenda 2000) promised but did not deliver.