Screening models for integrated environmental planning - A feasibility study for Flanders

The Flemish environment is under increasing pressure of urbanization, air and water pollution, the fragmentation of the natural landscape and other anthropogenic stressors. Although the regulatory frameworks imposed by the EU, Belgian and Flemish government to address these problems are based on clear time paths for reaching the objectives, the level of thematic integration is low. Long-term prospective studies such as the Environment Outlook 2030 and the Nature Outlook 2030 have been carried out to evaluate the existing status of the environment and nature and associated policies, anticipating on the long-term developments. Sectoral and static models cannot adequately describe the interactions between the themes and consequences of system feedback. A four-step approach using a skeleton model framework is proposed here to describe the functioning of Flanders as an integrated social, economic and environmental system at a high level of abstraction. A feasibility study was carried out to examine and compare the potential applicability of a broad range of models in the framework of the four-step approach. The analysis includes a graphical representation of the causalities linking the key state variables of the system, criteria to assess the extent to which thematic models could be applied in the four-step approach, and a ranking for a selection of models. The conceptual difficulties of the approach and usefulness for model selection are discussed.