National Parks and demographic change - Modelling the effects of ageing hikers on mountain landscape intra-area accessibility

With demographic change, the number of older hikers who visit National Parks (NP) and other natural recreational areas will increase. Results from sports medicine and transportation studies suggest that walking speed decreases with growing age, especially in mountainous landscapes, a fact that would have consequences for the intra-area accessibility of these areas. Based on 353 GPS trajectories, a questionnaire applied to visitors, and a geodatabase covering the trail network of the case study area of Berchtesgaden National Park (BNP), speed values and their environmental and demographic determinants are examined by regression modeling. Network analysis was performed in GIS to determine the accessibility of the BNP trail network for different age groups. Results show that in addition to such environmental characteristics as trail slope, trail difficulty, land use and elevation, age has a strong, non-linear influence on walking speed. Network modeling showed that walking times to certain areas in NP may vary by as much as 80 min among different age groups. These findings suggest that intra-area accessibility in the BNP is likely to decline with demographic change, with obvious implications for park management and planning.