Predicting coastal hazards for sandy coasts with a Bayesian Network

The added value of this method is that it can be applied to many coastal sites: (1) limited observations of offshore hydrodynamic parameters can be extended using the copula method which retains the original observations' natural variability, (2) the transformation from offshore observations to onshore hazards can be computed with any preferred coastal model and (3) a BN can be adjusted to fit any relevant connections between offshore hydraulic boundary conditions and onshore hazards. Furthermore, a BN can be continuously updated with new information and expanded to include different morphological conditions or risk reduction measures. As such, it is a promising extension of existing EWSs and as a planning tool for coastal managers.