Electronic prognostics – A case study using global positioning system (GPS)

Prognostic health management (PHM) of electronic systems presents challenges traditionally viewed as either insurmountable or otherwise not worth the cost of pursuit. Recent changes in weapons platform acquisition and support requirements have spurred renewed interest in electronics PHM, revealing possible applications, accessible data sources, and previously unexplored predictive techniques. The approach, development, and validation of electronic prognostics for a radio frequency (RF) system are discussed in this paper. Conventional PHM concepts are refined to develop a three-tier failure mode and effects analysis (FMEA). The proposed method identifies prognostic features by performing device, circuit, and system-level modeling. Accelerated failure testing validates the identified prognostic features. The results of the accelerated failure tests accurately predict the remaining useful life of a commercial off the shelf (COTS) GPS receiver to within ±5 thermal cycles. The solution has applicability to a broad class of mixed digital/analog circuitry, including radar and software defined radio.