Hotspots of canine leptospirosis in the United States of America

Leptospirosis is a widespread zoonotic disease that causes hepatic and renal disease in dogs and human beings. The incidence of leptospirosis in dogs in the USA appears to be increasing. This study used 14 years of canine leptospirosis testing data across 3109 counties in the USA to analyze environmental and socio-economic correlates with rates of infection and to produce a map of locations of increased risk for canine leptospirosis. Boosted regression trees were used to identify the probability of a dog testing positive for leptospirosis based on microscopic agglutination test (MAT) results, and environmental and socio-economic data. The Midwest, East and Southwest were more likely to yield positive tests for leptospirosis, although specific counties in Appalachia had some of the highest predicted probabilities. Location (suburban areas or areas with deciduous forest) and climate (precipitation and temperature) were predictors for positive MAT results for leptospirosis, although the precise direction and strength of the effects was difficult to interpret. Wide geographic variation in predicted risk was identified. This risk mapping approach may provide opportunities for improved diagnosis, control and prevention of leptospirosis in dogs.