Control of African swine fever epidemics in industrialized swine populations

Under the basic control strategy, the median epidemic duration was predicted to be 21 days (5th and 95th percentiles; 1-55 days), the median number of infected herds was predicted to be 3 herds (1-8), and the total costs were predicted to be €326 million (€256-€442 million). Adding pre-emptive depopulation or intensive surveillance by testing live animals resulted in marginal improvements to the control of the epidemics. However, adding testing of dead animals in the protection and surveillance zones was predicted to be the optimal control scenario for an ASF epidemic in industrialized swine populations without contact to wild boar. This optimal scenario reduced the epidemic duration to 9 days (1-38) and the total costs to €294 million (€257-€392 million). Export losses were the driving force of the total costs of the epidemics.