Original ArticlesCan energy policies affect the cycle of carbon emissions? Case study on the energy consumption of industrial terminals in Shanghai, Jiangsu and Zhejiang

•The CO2 emission time series data is processed using the Hodrick-Prescott filter.•We obtain change-point of CO2 emission with grey correlation-based search algorithm.•The cycle characteristics of three CO2 emission time series is explored.•The stage characteristics of energy policies is analysed.•Impact of energy policies on CO2 emission in Shanghai, Jiangsu, Zhejiang is studied.

This paper proposes an approach to calculate the time series of cumulative carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions between 1995 and 2014 based on industrial energy consumption data in three Eastern China jurisdictions in Shanghai, Jiangsu and Zhejiang during these two decades. Using the Hodrick-Prescott filter, the fluctuation components of the cumulative CO2-emission time-series data in the three provinces are obtained. Subsequently, a grey correlation-based change-point search algorithm is used to determine change-points in these data. Additionally, the CO2-emission time-series is divided into stages based on the change-points. The cycle characteristics of national energy policies, laws, and regulations are compared with those of the cumulative CO2-emission cycle of the three provinces to analyse the impact of energy policies on CO2 emissions. This study shows that, although the industrial structure and trends in the CO2 emission time-series data of the three provinces are different, their cumulative CO2-emission cycle remains the same from 1995 to 2014. The variation characteristics of the cumulative CO2 emissions for each cycle during this period are well aligned with the stage characteristics of energy policies, laws, and regulations, indicating that energy policies play a consistent role in regulating such emissions. This study examines low-carbon production and sustainable energy development, and offers suggestions for issuing and perfecting energy policies, laws, and regulations, considering the indicators of energy consumption and CO2 emissions.

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