Integrated spatial ecosystem model for simulating land use change and assessing vulnerability to flooding

•Assess interactive and dynamic relationships between urbanization and vulnerability.•A system model integrating land use change and vulnerability was developed.•Spatial distributions of land use change and vulnerability to flooding were simulated.•The feedback of vulnerability could affect the rate of urban development.

Components of urban vulnerability (exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity) to extreme climate events are directly related to urbanization. An indicator-based approach has frequently been used to assess urban vulnerability, but the interactions among indicators representing the components of vulnerability and the feedback interactions between vulnerability and urbanization have rarely been considered. To understand the interactive and dynamic relationships between urbanization and vulnerability, a study was undertaken that applied systems ecology theory to the development of a spatial model for the simulation of land use change and vulnerability to flooding in the Taipei metropolitan region. The study area was divided into grids of 1 km × 1 km, and each grid cell was represented by a system model comprising subsystems of natural area, agricultural area, and urban area. A model of vulnerability assessment was attached with the urban area subsystem to calculate the three components of vulnerability as a consequence of land use change and to show the bilateral relationship between urbanization and vulnerability. The simulation results showed that the spatial distribution of urban development in the Taipei metropolitan region and the components of vulnerability that were directly affected by urbanization. The simulation results suggested that peri-urban areas of the Taipei metropolitan region have higher vulnerability to flooding than the heavily urbanized areas in the Taipei basin. The simulation results also revealed that the pace of urban development would be slowed if the assessed vulnerability was used as feedback to subsequent urban development.