Giant panda survival crisis remains serious based on the ecosystem catastrophe model

•Ecosystem was studied by combination of catastrophe model, MTT and trend line.•Trend lines of LPS or HPA from power distribution of T3NS to exponential, T4NS.•No substantial improvement was identified in discreteness of LPS or HPA with MTT.•Catastrophe model was applied on ecosystem with population and habitat subsystem.•According to the cusp catastrophe model analysis, the ecosystem has degraded.

The habitat area of the giant panda and the number of wild populations have increased significantly over the past decade, while habitat fragmentation and survival crisis of local populations have become more serious. To assess the current survival status of the giant panda, we analyzed the Third and Fourth National Panda Survey data using trend line analysis, moving T-test, and catastrophe theory. The catastrophe potential function and the cusp catastrophe model were constructed to analyze the ecosystem stability. The results showed that over the past decade, each single index, such as habitat area or population size, increased, and the discreteness of local population size and habitat patch area improved. However, no substantial improvement was identified in discreteness, whereas ecosystem stability was weakened by severe habitat fragmentation and population isolation.

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