A foliar disease simulation model to assist the design of new control methods against black leaf streak disease of banana

•We built a foliar disease mechanistic model to simulate BLSD on a banana plant.•The model couples perennial host growth and complex pathogen epidemic cycle.•We present the Bayesian inference of the most influent pathogen parameters.•Model evaluation suggests realistic predictions of disease dynamics.•Simulations allow identifying disease control using plant resistance and plant growth.

Black leaf streak disease (BLSD), caused by the fungal pathogen Mycosphaerella fijiensis, is considered as the most destructive foliar disease of banana. To advance our knowledge of the dynamics of the disease at plant scale as well as of the components of varietal resistance, we designed, calibrated and evaluated a mechanistic model to simulate the disease on a banana plant. The model runs in discrete time at plant scale and describes plant growth and pathogen dynamics under optimal epidemiological conditions. The model is divided into two modules: a deterministic plant sub-model that simulates the simplified architecture and growth of the banana, and a pathogen sub-model that simulates the detailed life cycle of the pathogen including infection, lesion growth, asexual and sexual sporulation, and the dispersal of spores on the plant. The three most influential epidemiological parameters identified by sensitivity analysis of the model (lesion growth rate, infection efficiency, and incubation period) were estimated in a Bayesian framework using Markov chain Monte Carlo methods and acquired data on the dynamics of leaf lesions under natural conditions. The posterior densities provided precise knowledge on pathogen life history traits. The evaluation of the model using an independent data set confirmed the good quality of the predictions. Simulations allowed us to evaluate the impact of host resistance components, auto-infection at plant scale, and of the leaf emergence rate, which is linked with cropping practices, on the severity of BLSD. This foliar disease simulation model will help design new methods of controlling BLSD.