CISTA-A: Conceptual model using indicators selected by systems thinking for adaptation strategies in a changing climate: Case study in agro-ecosystems

•CISTA-A model to develop adaptation strategies using novel systems thinking approaches.•CIST-A has three main layers.•A base (element) layer has abiotic/biotic information.•One or more components (intermediate) layer(s) have ecological, agro-hydrological, and climatological indicators.•In the final layer, the translation of information from indicators to adaptation strategies.

Adapting our ecosystems to climate change for sustainable management requires an understanding of three broad interconnected systems: ecosystems, climate systems and adaptive management and planning systems. Multiple factors shape adaptive responses to a changing climate because of the complexities and multi-disciplinary nature of these three systems. In this study, the conceptual model CISTA-A (CISTA for Agro-ecosystems) is developed using Indicators that are identified as using a Systems Thinking approach to Adaptation. CISTA addresses questions concerning “how to adapt” our ecosystems to climate change and has three or more layers: A base (element) layer has abiotic/biotic information (e.g. ecological, agro-hydrological, and meteorological data). One or more components (intermediate) layer(s) have ecological, agro-hydrological, and climatological indicators (e.g. length of the growing season and growing degree days) that affect the ecosystem. Indicators are identified and estimated from an element layer. In the final layer, the translation of information from indicators to adaptation strategies (incremental systems and transformational adaptation) depends on the degree of change and the level of adaptation. CISTA can stand alone or combine with existing crop/integrated assessment models to develop quantitative adaptation strategies. The use of 23 indicators and 3 empirical tests in the agro-ecosystems (AS) of Kansas, USA demonstrate the application of CISTA-A.

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