Farm- and flock-level risk factors associated with Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza outbreaks on small holder duck and chicken farms in the Mekong Delta of Viet Nam

After 11 consecutive months of control, the Mekong Delta in Viet Nam experienced a wave of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI) H5N1 outbreaks on small holder poultry farms from December 2006 to January 2007. We conducted a retrospective matched case-control study to investigate farm- and flock-level risk factors for outbreak occurrence during this period. Twenty-two case farms were selected from those where clinical signs consistent with HPAI H5N1 had been present and HPAI H5N1 had been confirmed with a positive real-time PCR test from samples obtained from affected birds. For every case farm enrolled, two control farms were selected matched on time of outbreak occurrence, farm location and species. Veterinarians conducted interviews with farmers, to collect information on household demographics, farm characteristics, husbandry practices, trading practices, poultry health, vaccination and biosecurity. Exact stratified logistic regression models were used to assess putative risk factors associated with a flock having or not having a HPAI outbreak. Nested analyses were also performed, restricted to subsets of farms using scavenging, confinement or supplementary feeding practices. Risk of an outbreak of HPAI H5N1 was increased in flocks that had received no vaccination (odds ratio (OR) = 20.2; 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.0, +infinity) or only one vaccination (OR = 85.2; 95% CI: 6.5, +infinity) of flocks compared to two vaccinations, and in flocks on farms that had family and friends visiting (OR = 8.2; 95% CI: 1.0, +infinity) and geese present (OR = 11.5; 95% CI: 1.1, +infinity). The subset analysis using only flocks that scavenged showed that sharing of scavenging areas with flocks from other farms was associated with increased risk of an outbreak (OR = 10.9; 95% CI: 1.4, 492.9). We conclude that none or only one vaccination, visitors to farms, the presence of geese on farms and sharing of scavenging areas with ducks from other farms increase the risk of HPAI H5N1 outbreaks in poultry flocks in Viet Nam.