Updated prediction for the BSE epidemic in dairy cattle in Japan

Following the detection of the first case of Bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) in Japan in September 2001, nine million cattle were tested for BSE up to the end of 2008. As a result, a further 28 cases were detected in dairy cattle. Using the mathematical model previously developed and surveillance data up to the end of 2008, we estimated the prevalence of BSE-infected animals within each birth cohort for the years 1995-2001. We predicted historic and future trends in the number of BSE-infected animals to be culled and anticipated BSE cases from each birth cohort. The results indicate that more infected animals (428 (95% CI: 59-727)) than previously estimated would have been culled from 1995 to 2001, and more cases (53 (95% CI: 25-101)) than previously predicted would have been detected during this period with a higher peak in 2001, if a BSE surveillance program as comprehensive as the present one was applied. In and after 2009, 0-2 cases of BSE would likely to be detected. As previously predicted, the BSE epidemic should be eradicated by 2012.