Global geographic distribution of Trichinella species and genotypes

Maximum entropy ecological niche modeling was utilized to describe the global geographic distribution of Trichinella species and genotypes and to assess their invasive risk in new areas other than the ones currently known. Also, space-time scan statistic was utilized to identify global spatiotemporal clusters of infection. A database containing 3209 records for 12 species and genotypes identified at the International Trichinella Reference Center (ITRC) as well as climate, elevation, and land cover data extracted from various databases were used. Ecological niche modeling implemented in the Maxent program indicated new potential ranges for T. spiralis (T1), T. nativa (T2), T. britovi (T3), T. pseudospiralis (T4), T. murrelli (T5), T6, T. papuae (T10), and T. zimbabwensis (T11). The area under the curve values for the test data of the models ranged from 0.901 to 0.998, indicating that the models were very good to excellent. The most important bioclimatic factor in modeling the ranges for T. spiralis (T1), T. nativa (T2), T. britovi (T3), T6, and T. zimbabwensis (T11) was temperature, for T. pseudospiralis (T4) and T. papuae (T10) was precipitation, and for T. murrelli (T5) was land cover. T. spiralis (T1), T. britovi (T3), and T. pseudospiralis (T4) had the same primary land cover which was “Grass Crops”. The primary land covers were “Conifer Boreal Forest” for T. nativa (T2), “Cool Fields and Woods” for T. murrelli (T5), “Upland Tundra” for T6, “Tropical Rainforest” for T. papuae (T10), and “Crops and Town” for T. zimbabwensis (T11). The scan statistic analyses revealed the presence of significant spatiotemporal clusters (p < 0.05) for T. spiralis (T1), T. nativa (T2), T. britovi (T3), T. pseudospiralis (T4), T. murrelli (T5), T6, and T. nelsoni (T7). No significant clusters were found for T. papuae (T10) and T. zimbabwensis (T11).