Prediction of flu epidemic activity with dynamical model based on weather forecast

The proposed alternation of variables represents SIRS equations as the second-order ODE with an outer excitation. It reveals an origin of such predictive efficiency and explains analytically the 1:1 dynamical resonance, which is known as a crucial property of epidemic behavior. Our work opens the perspectives for the development of instant short-time prediction of a normal level of flu activity based on the weather forecast, and allows to estimate a current epidemic level more precisely. The latter fact is based on the explicit difference between the expected weather-based activity and instant anomalies.