Drought impact assessment on rural livelihood systems in Iran

The present study aimed to analyze the effects of drought on rural livelihood systems in Iran with an emphasis on the mediator role of livelihood assets in relationship between drought and livelihood outcomes. The relationships between these concepts were explored through the lens of sustainable livelihoods approach. A conceptual model was developed based on the literature review and was evaluated using cross-sectional data based on 11 years average of each variable from 2002 to the end of 2012. Regarding research objectives, a documentary review was applied to collect necessary data and information. So, secondary data were obtained from national surveys and statistical sources of governmental organizations. Data were analyzed using multiple regression. We followed the Baron and Kenny's (1986) three-step procedure to test mediating relationships between variables. Results generally showed that drought duration had destructive effects on rural livelihood capitals and outcomes, while the negative influences of drought severity were far more restricted than drought duration. Complete mediation of livelihood assets in the relationship between drought intensity and inequality was confirmed. We also found support for partial mediation of livelihood assets in the relationship between drought severity and duration with the added value of the agricultural sector as well as in the relationship between drought duration and inequality.