Using a bioinspired model to determine the extinction risk of Calotriton asper populations as a result of an increase in extreme rainfall in a scenario of climatic change

C. asper extinction was predicted in only one scenario in the Pi Valley population. However, a reduction in population levels is observed under all scenarios of increased frequency of extreme rainfall. Consequently, the risk of extinction rises as indicated by an increase in the coefficient of variation. Larval mortality by catastrophic drift is considerable, leading to a lack of recruitment in the third year, the time at which small newts reach sexual maturity and return to the water.