Species distribution models predict range expansion better than chance but not better than a simple dispersal model

► We modelled the recent range expansion of six deer species in Britain. ► SDM and a dispersal model were applied to the data previous to the expansion. ► As expected, SDM models performed better than chance in predicting range expansion. ► However, SDM models did not perform better than the simplest dispersal model. ► These results question the true informative capacity of SDM models.