Improving the representation of internal nutrient recycling with phosphorus mass balance models: A case study in the Bay of Quinte, Ontario, Canada

► We enhance the mechanistic foundation of a simple total phosphorus model. ► The model closely reproduced the end of the summer TP accumulation patterns. ► The system receives internal subsidies from the sediment diagenesis mechanisms. ► We argue in favor of a probabilistic approach to nutrient criteria. ► Delisting decisions should revolve around extreme values of water quality variables.