Evaluating the combined threat of climate change and biological invasions on endangered species

► Ensemble Species Distribution Models (SDM) are used to anticipate joint changes in native and invasive species distribution. ► SDM confirm that invasive species like Dreissena polymorpha may benefit from climate changes (15-20% expansion). ► Native Pseudanodonta complanata may face a notable contraction (14-36%), its overlap with the invader increasing by 25%. ► In contrast, both the native and invasive crayfishes showed a contraction in their potential range. ► SDM allowed identifying areas of shared bioclimatic suitability as well as potential refugia for native species conservation.