Will Mississippi River diversions designed for coastal restoration cause harmful algal blooms?

Large-scale river diversions have been proposed as a way to transport sediment to the deteriorating Mississippi River deltaic plain. These diversions would also transport immense nutrient loads to shallow receiving estuaries, including open water areas where there may be potential for blooms of toxin-producing cyanobacteria. We examined environmental variables and cyanobacteria dynamics in the Lake Pontchartrain Estuary during the spring-summer period of two years: (a) 2011 when the system received a massive inflow of diverted Mississippi River water from the Bonnet Carré Spillway, and (b) 2012 when no diversion occurred. Cluster analysis of 180 samples collected over the course of both years identified five distinct water types grouped according to salinity, temperature, clarity, bioavailable nutrients, and chlorophyll a. Three of these water types were unique to the 2011 diversion event. We found no evidence of immediate, direct cyanobacteria bloom stimulation by diverted nutrients in the “high phytoplankton biomass” cluster associated with the 2011 diversion. Substantial nitrate assimilation by non-harmful phytoplankton occurred as the plume of diverted freshwater traveled through the system that year. The “summer” cluster characterized by nitrogen-limited conditions and including data from both years was characterized by significantly greater cyanobacteria abundance than all other clusters. There was no difference in cyanobacteria abundance between years within the summer cluster. Microcystin levels detected suggested low probability of acute health risks for recreational waters and were not correlated to cyanobacteria abundance. Site-specific understanding of the following is needed to guide diversion management: (i) interannual phytoplankton community variability in non-diversion years, (ii) cyanobacteria inputs from local tributaries, (iii) interactions between plume physics, chemistry, and phytoplankton dynamics, (iv) internal phosphorus feedbacks that may indirectly link diversions to summer blooms, and (v) controls on cyanotoxin production.