Winter wheat yield potentials and yield gaps in the North China Plain

► Potential yield of winter wheat simulated with EPIC using weather data from 1960 to 2007 was 6.6-9.1 t ha−1 in the North China Plain (NCP), generally increasing from north to south associated with decreasing low temperature stress. ► Based on county-level data from 2004 to 2007, the yield gap in the NCP was 2.7 t ha−1, 32% of the potential yield. ► Using 80% of the potential yield as an exploitable level, average actual wheat yields in the NCP could be increased by 1.0 t ha−1 or 18%. ► Yield gaps at the county level were inversely correlated with actual yields (R2 = 0.82).