Farmers' perceptions of climate change and their likely responses in Danish agriculture

•Climate change belief makes Danish farmers more willing to adapt to positive impacts.•Climate change concern makes farmers more willing to adapt to negative impacts.•Danish farmers are more opportunistic than risk-averse regarding climate change.•Farmers feel surer about objective ability to act than effectiveness of action.•Adaptation decision-making is not considered separately from other decisions.

Farmers are accustomed to coping with year-to-year changes in climate, but climate change is expected to accelerate the need and magnitude of farmers' adaptation (Wheeler and Tiffin, 2009). Based on a survey of farmers across Denmark (1053 responses), this paper assesses how farmers' perceive climate change, weigh its attendant risks, and envision the barriers to adaptation as these factors stand to affect their likelihood to undertake adaptive action in the Global North. Descriptive statistics and an ordered probit model were used to disentangle the magnitude and direction of the cognitive factors underpinning farmers' likelihood to adapt. We also differentiate between adaptation to positive and negative potential impacts of climate change and provide important new insights on loss aversion and, more specifically, the conditions under which loss aversion may give way to a preference for gains. Our results indicate that Danish farmers are not terribly concerned about climate change impacts and perceive many barriers to adaptation, yet they indicate a moderate likelihood to undertake adaptive action in the future, particularly to potential opportunities from climate change impacts. However, we also find that the more concerned a farmer is about climate change, the more he is likely to adapt in response to negative climate impacts − the balance between loss aversion and gain preferences appears to depend on context. In either case, Danish farmers appear to prefer incremental and flexible adaptations in the face of uncertain future climate change impacts.