Routine activity, population(s) and crime: Spatial heterogeneity and conflicting Propositions about the neighborhood crime-population link

Routine activity theory is one of the few macro-criminological perspectives that provides support to the idea of spatial heterogeneity, suggesting that an increased human presence in a given area is expected to be associated with both an increase and a decrease in criminal activity. The goal of this article is to provide a simultaneous test of both Propositions of routine activity theory. Geographically weighted regression modelling is used to analyze data from the city of Toronto, at census-tract level. Results suggest that, unsurprisingly, there is a positive relationship between crime and population in many tracts; however, empirical support is also found for the opposite proposition that larger populations are (sometimes) associated with less crime. This is especially true for areas that receive visits largely for shopping, school, and work.