Exploring prospective urban growth trends under different economic outlooks and land-use planning scenarios: The case of Athens

Simulation modeling along with scenario analysis is a useful tool for urban planning, by providing an appraisement of different alternatives and tradeoffs and thus contributing to improved decision making. The objective of this study is to explore potential future urban dynamics in the Messoghia plain, (peri-urban Athens, Greece) under four scenarios that reflect future growth traits in the area related to different economic performance realities and alternative policies. Messoghia, a predominantly rural area, experienced significant and unregulated urban growth, during the past decades, due to the construction of the international airport in the area, the significant allocation of funds triggered by 2004 Olympics and the absence of planning controls. However, the late economic circumstances significantly affected the growth trends in the area. First, the paper looks at the periodic changes occurred during the past three decades (1980-2015) employing remote sensing techniques and Landsat data. The observed changes are then combined with 20 dynamic, biophysical, socio-economic and legislative factors, to produce transition potential maps using the Random Forests algorithm. Scenarios are projected until 2045 by implementing a spatially explicit Cellular Automata model. Under an economically optimistic scenario which means high or medium development circumstances, and given the absence of an adequate controlling mechanism, the artificial surfaces are expected to nearly double in size, by 2045. In case of a continuation of economic scarcity which can be translated in low or very low development, the artificial surfaces are expected to increase by 9% or 6% respectively, by 2045.