Sociopolitical influences on cropland area change in Iraq, 2001-2012

Iraq has experienced significant agricultural land use changes throughout its history, including recent changes initiated by the 2003 US-led military invasion, the end of United Nations' economic sanctions and the onset of overt domestic conflict. Conflict and sociopolitical forces are important drivers of land use/land cover change and often have disproportionate impacts on agricultural systems. However, there has been little research to investigate recent changes in agricultural land use/land cover in Iraq over the recent tumultuous period that has included war and the transition of its political system from a dictatorship to an emerging but beleaguered democracy. Our objectives were to (1) determine if cropland area in Iraq changed significantly between 2001 and 2012, (2) identify regional patterns of cropland area change, and (3) identify sociopolitical forces driving those changes. We used MODIS Land Cover Product yearly data to quantify the amount of land cover dedicated to croplands. We regressed cropland area (ha) on time (2001, 2002, 2003,…) and years with drought influence (yes, no). The results revealed significant changes in cropland area for Iraq as a whole, with cropland area decreasing over 30,000 ha per year. Regionally, there were significant decreases in the Kurdish Autonomous Region and central Iraq, and initial increases in the southern marshlands followed by decreases related to drought.