What does the future hold for semi-arid Mediterranean agro-ecosystems? - Exploring cellular automata and agent-based trajectories of future land-use change

► Contrasting trajectories of future land use change are highlighted. ► The Markovian-CA projection indicates further expansion of irrigated agriculture. ► The ABM highlights landscape effects of farmers' responses to water uncertainty. ► The heterogeneity of farmers and the framing of future scenarios are important. ► Approaches for agent parameterization and agent typology up-scaling are presented.